IMF raises Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.4%

Business • July 30, 2025

By Elisha | PulseDaily Business Desk

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 to 3.4%, a 0.4% increase from its earlier 3.0% forecast in April.  The revised estimate, released in the July 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), also projects Nigeria’s growth to reach 3.2% in 2026, up from the previous 2.7% forecast.

Globally, the IMF now expects 3.0% growth in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, showing a slight but positive upward shift. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the report forecasts 4.0% growth in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, reflecting steady economic resilience across the region.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent in 2025, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF stated.

Why the Upgrade for Nigeria?

Analysts attribute Nigeria’s improved forecast to increased crude oil production, stronger service sector performance, and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments.

Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, commented:

“The IMF’s 3.4% projection aligns with our in-house expectations based on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. However, while this revision reflects positive momentum, growth at this level is still insufficient to address the country’s poverty and unemployment challenges.”

Experts warn that sustaining growth will require targeted reforms in infrastructure, fiscal policies, and diversification efforts beyond oil.

While the IMF’s revised forecast offers a glimmer of optimism, Nigeria must pursue deeper structural reforms and implement inclusive economic policies to translate growth into real improvements in living standards.

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