Nigeria’s Estimated Regional Population Distribution as of 2024: A Legal and Policy Analysis

Nigeria’s Estimated Regional Population Distribution as of 2024: A Legal and Policy Analysis

As of 2024, Nigeria’s total population has been estimated at approximately 225 million people, based on demographic projections released by StatiSense, an independent data analytics platform. Although this is not an official census figure, the data provides a regional breakdown that may be relevant for policy planning, legal reforms, electoral boundary adjustments, and socio-economic interventions.

Regional Population Estimates: North vs. South

The available figures indicate a notable demographic disparity between Nigeria’s northern and southern regions:

Northern Nigeria: Approx. 125 million

Southern Nigeria: Approx. 100 million

These figures suggest that the North accounts for approximately 55.5% of the national population, while the South constitutes the remaining 44.5%.

Population Estimates by Geo-Political Zone

The breakdown by Nigeria’s six geo-political zones is as follows:

North West: 62 million – the most populous zone.

South West: 44 million

North Central: 33 million

North East: 32 million

South South: 32 million

South East: 29 million

These projections reveal that the North West alone accounts for over 27% of Nigeria’s total population, a significant figure that may impact political representation, federal allocations, and internal resource distribution frameworks.

Census Delay and Its Legal Implications

It should be noted that Nigeria has not conducted a population census since 2006, in violation of the United Nations’ recommended 10-year census interval. The National Population Commission (NPC), led by Chairman Nasir Isa Kwarra, confirmed in 2024 that the next national census is tentatively scheduled for 2025. This marks a 19-year gap in official demographic data.

Kwarra, during the 2024 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) event in Abuja, highlighted the adverse implications of this delay, especially for:

Reproductive health planning

Maternal mortality reduction strategies

Targeted socio-economic development

Legally equitable allocation of national resources

The census, originally planned for 2023, was deferred twice under the previous administration. Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2025 national address, there has been no official update or proclamation regarding the specific timeline for the exercise.

Legal Relevance and Policy Recommendations

Electoral Planning: With the 2027 general elections approaching, accurate population data is crucial for voter register audits, constituency delineation, and fair representation under Section 112 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended).

Resource Allocation: Section 16(2)(d) of the Constitution mandates equitable distribution of resources, which hinges upon up-to-date demographic statistics.

Health and Education Policy: Article 12 of the African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child emphasizes state obligations to plan for child welfare, which requires current population insights.

Security and Urban Planning: Population pressure, especially in zones such as the North West, may influence urban congestion, unemployment, and social unrest – requiring proactive legal and administrative responses.

In the absence of a formal and updated population census, the figures presented by StatiSense, while unofficial, are of high relevance to legal practitioners, policymakers, and civil society stakeholders. A timely census in 2025 remains critical to uphold constitutional and international obligations and ensure national development policies are grounded in verified demographic realities.